PLO Equities, Part 2

In a recent post, I summarized the equity at the time of all-in bets (before the river card) in low stakes, online PLO games.  Here are a few more:

• Lost this one, with top set (and a blocker) against an open-ended straight draw.  Villain also had top two pair and would have thought his equity was much higher, but in reality he had zero outs to improve to a full house that would win the pot.  Sigh.

Me:   K♣ Q♠ Q♦ 3♠ = 72.2%

Villain:  J♠ 9♣ T♠ Q♥ = 27.8%

Board: Q♠ 6♦ 9♦

• Won this one, when the pre-flop action strongly suggested villain had AA (correct!) and I pushed hard on a flop of bottom 2-pair, which is rarely advisable in PLO.  I didn’t count on villain also having a nut flush draw, and fortunately managed to fade that.  I helped that I held two flush blockers.

Me:   6♠ 5♦ 8♠ 9♥ = 52.8%

Villain:  A♥ 2♠ 7♦ A♠ = 47.2%

Board: Q♠ 6♥ 5♠

• Lost this one, where I was behind on the flop in terms of hand strength (JJ < KK) but well ahead in terms of equity with a ton of outs (any club, J, T, 9 or 8 = 18 outs!) and only one card that would improve villain’s hand (K♥) enough to counterfeit some of my outs.

Me:   J♠ 8♣ J♣ T♥ = 61.9%

Villain:  K♠ 7♠ 5♦ K♦ = 38.1%

Board: T♦ Q♣ 4♣

• Won this one, where my flopped nut straight held up against top set, a fairly typical situation for PLO all-ins where both players are betting hard post-flop on this kind of board texture.

Me:   9♦ Q♥ A♣ 7♠ = 77.5%

Villain:  8♣ 8♦ 4♣ A♥ = 22.5%

Board: 8♥ 6♠ 5♣ Q♦

• Won this one, with a backdoor flush after flopping an open-ended straight draw against villain’s top pair plus wrap.  The turn card gave me just enough equity to decide to gamble.

Me:   J♠ K♠ 6♦ 8♦ = 32.5%

Villain:  9♣ 8♣ Q♥ J♦ = 67.5%

Board: Q♦ 3♣ T♠ 4♦

• Lost this one, after flopping a weak flush with no re-draws.  I was drawing dead the entire way, and putting my entire stack at risk here was inexcusably bad.  So awful I wanted to leave it out of this summary, but it happened and I own it.

Me:   8♥ 6♦ 7♦ 2♥ = 0.0%

Villain:  4♦ Q♣ 7♥ Q♥ = 100.0%

Board: 9♥ T♥ 3♥ K♣

• Won this one, with top pair and a nut flush draw (made trip Q’s on the river) against two pair plus an open-ended straight draw.  This is another typical PLO confrontation, where both players have multiple ways to improved and equity is 60/40 or closer.

Me:   6♥ Q♦ 6♣ A♦ = 40.0%

Villain:  T♠ J♠ 9♥ 6♦ = 60.0%

Board: 9♦ J♥ 4♦ Q♠

• Won this one, with middle set against a wrap straight draw that villain played too aggressively on the flop.  When the turn card paired the board, villain was drawing dead.

Me:   J♥ 2♥ 3♠ K♣ = 56.7%

Villain:  K♥ T♥ A♠ 8♥ = 43.3%

Board: Q♠ J♠ 3♥

Summary stats including hands from Part 1:

Total hands reviewed (heads-up only):  19

Got it in as the favorite:  12 (63.2%) = GOOD

Actually won the pot:  10 (52.6%) = UNDER-PERFORMING

Simple average of equity in heads-up pots:  53.3% = DECENT

Regression to the mean eventually will prevail; until then, variance has not been my friend = BAD

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