In a recent post, I summarized the equity at the time of all-in bets (before the river card) in low stakes, online PLO games. Here are a few more:
- Lost this one, with top set (and a blocker) against an open-ended straight draw. Villain also had top two pair and would have thought his equity was much higher, but in reality he had zero outs to improve to a full house that would win the pot. Sigh.
Me: K♣ Q♠ Q♦ 3♠ = 72.2%
Villain: J♠ 9♣ T♠ Q♥ = 27.8%
Board: Q♠ 6♦ 9♦
- Won this one, when the pre-flop action strongly suggested villain had AA (correct!) and I pushed hard on a flop of bottom 2-pair, which is rarely advisable in PLO. I didn’t count on villain also having a nut flush draw, and fortunately managed to fade that. I helped that I held two flush blockers.
Me: 6♠ 5♦ 8♠ 9♥ = 52.8%
Villain: A♥ 2♠ 7♦ A♠ = 47.2%
Board: Q♠ 6♥ 5♠
- Lost this one, where I was behind on the flop in terms of hand strength (JJ < KK) but well ahead in terms of equity with a ton of outs (any club, J, T, 9 or 8 = 18 outs!) and only one card that would improve villain’s hand (K♥) enough to counterfeit some of my outs.
Me: J♠ 8♣ J♣ T♥ = 61.9%
Villain: K♠ 7♠ 5♦ K♦ = 38.1%
Board: T♦ Q♣ 4♣
- Won this one, where my flopped nut straight held up against top set, a fairly typical situation for PLO all-ins where both players are betting hard post-flop on this kind of board texture.
Me: 9♦ Q♥ A♣ 7♠ = 77.5%
Villain: 8♣ 8♦ 4♣ A♥ = 22.5%
Board: 8♥ 6♠ 5♣ Q♦
- Won this one, with a backdoor flush after flopping an open-ended straight draw against villain’s top pair plus wrap. The turn card gave me just enough equity to decide to gamble.
Me: J♠ K♠ 6♦ 8♦ = 32.5%
Villain: 9♣ 8♣ Q♥ J♦ = 67.5%
Board: Q♦ 3♣ T♠ 4♦
- Lost this one, after flopping a weak flush with no re-draws. I was drawing dead the entire way, and putting my entire stack at risk here was inexcusably bad. So awful I wanted to leave it out of this summary, but it happened and I own it.
Me: 8♥ 6♦ 7♦ 2♥ = 0.0%
Villain: 4♦ Q♣ 7♥ Q♥ = 100.0%
Board: 9♥ T♥ 3♥ K♣
- Won this one, with top pair and a nut flush draw (made trip Q’s on the river) against two pair plus an open-ended straight draw. This is another typical PLO confrontation, where both players have multiple ways to improved and equity is 60/40 or closer.
Me: 6♥ Q♦ 6♣ A♦ = 40.0%
Villain: T♠ J♠ 9♥ 6♦ = 60.0%
Board: 9♦ J♥ 4♦ Q♠
- Won this one, with middle set against a wrap straight draw that villain played too aggressively on the flop. When the turn card paired the board, villain was drawing dead.
Me: J♥ 2♥ 3♠ K♣ = 56.7%
Villain: K♥ T♥ A♠ 8♥ = 43.3%
Board: Q♠ J♠ 3♥
Summary stats including hands from Part 1:
Total hands reviewed (heads-up only): 19
Got it in as the favorite: 12 (63.2%) = GOOD
Actually won the pot: 10 (52.6%) = UNDER-PERFORMING
Simple average of equity in heads-up pots: 53.3% = DECENT
Regression to the mean eventually will prevail; until then, variance has not been my friend = BAD
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