PLO Equities

Pot Limit Omaha poker analysis

In my last post, I compared Pot Limit Omaha to Major League Baseball, noting that equity percentages and variance in PLO hands are similar to win/loss rates of the best and worst baseball teams, or somewhere in the middle

Here are some examples from recent play, showing equity at the time of the all-in bets where there are more cards to come:

  • Lost this one, despite flopping bottom set with blockers to both top & middle set and a backdoor flush draw.  Villain flops 2nd nut flush draw and gutshot Broadway draw

Me:   Q♣ 5 T 5♣ = 62.8%

Villain:  K♠ 8♠ A 9= 37.2%

Board: 5♠ T♠ Q

  • Lost this one after shoving a short-stack pre-flop.  At its core, this is TT v. AA, which would make me a 20/80 underdog in Texas Holdem, but my additional suitedness and connectedness brings my equity up quite a bit despite villain holding pocket aces double suited.

Me:  Q♣ T T♠ J♣ = 33.7%

Villain:  7♠ 9 A♠ A = 66.3%

  • Lost this one, all-in on the flop and V2 made a better straight when another low card came

Me: 4 A♠ Q♠ 5= 34.8%

Villain 1:  4♠ 7 5♣ 6♠ = 29.6%

Villain 2:  Q K♣ J♣ 8= 35.6%

Board:  3♠ 2♣ Q

  • Won this one, flopped set over set and got it in on the turn

Me:  K 6 8♠ 6♣ = 92.5%

Villain:  4 4 Q♣ 9♣ = 7.5%

Board:  6 9♠ 4♣ A

  • Won this one after getting all-in on the flop with nearly identical hands.  Pre-flop, villain had me dominated (68% v. 32%), on the flop it looked like we would chop the pot but I hit a 3-outer (T) on the river

Me:  K♣ T♠ 8♣ J = 54.1%

Villain:  J 8 K J♣ = 45.9%

Board:  8 3 8♠

  • Lost this one despite making pot-size bets on the flop and turn, when J♠ arrived on the river.

Me:  Q♣ 4♠ K A = 77.5%

Villain:  3 7 T T♣ = 22.5%

Board:  Q♠ J T♠ 9♣

  • Lost this one when villain’s flush came on the turn to crack my aces

Me:  J A 7 A = 45.7%

Villain:  6♠ 7♣ 5♠ Q♣ = 54.3%

Board:  4 K♠ 2♠

  • Won a 3-way all-in here.  We got it in pre-flop, then the flop came AKK… woot!  woot!  Not sure what V1 was thinking.

Me:  A♠ J 7♣ A = 48.6%

Villain 1:  9 9♠ 4 T♣ = 22.7%

Villain 2:  K Q♣ Q 6♠ = 28.7%

  • Lost this one –> AA v. KK pre-flop all-in.  Despite having a K in my hand as a blocker, he still flopped a set.

Me:  K♣ A A T♠ = 72.7%

Villain:  J♠ K K 7 = 27.3%

  • Won a side pot but lost the main pot on this one when a backdoor flush came in for V2

Me:  4♠ 8 5 4 = 40.1%

Villain 1:  T♠ K Q♠ 7 = 28.8%

Villain 2:  7♣ 9 8 J♣ = 31.1%

Board:  8♣ 9♠ 4

  • Won this one, getting all-in on the flop in a weird runout.  I had a nut flush draw with a backdoor alternate flush draw.  Villain had bottom pair, 2nd nut flush draw, a weaker-than-mine backdoor alternate flush draw and a gutshot straight draw.  He made his straight on the turn, then I backdoored a higher straight on the river.  Lucky me this time!

Me:  A T♠ 3♠ J = 54.0%

Villain:  2♠ 8 K 5♠ = 46.0%

Flop:  9♠ 6 5

  • Won this one where you could argue both of us were free rolling.  We both had Broadway straights; villain also had bottom set and outs to improve to a full house or quads, but I had a nut flush draw and hit it on the river.

Me:  6♣ Q♣ K A = 47.5%

Villain:  4♠ 4 A♣ K = 52.5%

Board:  Q T J♣ 4

  • Lost this one, another AA v KK.  This time villain turns a set.

Me:  A Q A♣ A = 58.5%

Villain:  K♠ K♣ J♠ 7♣ = 41.5%

  • Won this one in a reversal of fortune, sucking out a Q on the river to lift my QQ ahead of villain’s KK

Me:  8 Q♠ Q♣ 2♣ = 21.0%

Villain:  J♠ K♠ 8♣ K = 79.0%

Board:  3♠ 2♠ 4♣

In summary, these are 14 PLO hands with all-ins while there were more cards to come.

I was the favorite 9 times (64.3%), but only won 7 of 14 pots (50.0%).  Still, it’s better to be on the right side of the math more often than not, and the win rate will catch up over the long term.  It will, right?  Somebody please assure me it will.

My average equity in heads up pots (11 out of 14) was 56.4%.  In 3-way pots, my average equity was 41.2%, better than the 33.3% needed to break-even over the long run.

In baseball terms, that’s good enough for 91 wins in a 162-game regular season.  It’s a very small sample, but reassuring that my getting-it-all-in instincts are at least better than break even.  As a PLO rookie, I’ll take it.

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