KKing David

Ruminations on poker

Daily Debacle – Yes Virginia, There is a River Card

Here are a few hands from the last two days – all playing $0.10 / 0.25 NL online, that didn’t turn out so well:

1.  I have AA and the flop is Qd 6s 3s.  Villain raises my C-bet, I shove and he calls, resulting in a $25 pot.  He shows Qc Jc.  The river is Jd and he wins.  At the time we went all-in, I was an 81.5% favorite, making my “equity” in the pot ($25 x 81.5%) = $20.40.

2.  I have Ah 6h and the flop is Ad Jd 6d.  I lead out with a bet, villain with a short stack shoves and I call, resulting in a $15 pot.  He shows Kd 8c.  The turn is 8d and he wins.  At the time we went all-in, I was a 66% favorite, making my “equity” in the pot ($15 x 66%) = $9.90.

3.  I have KK and the board comes out 8d 7d Jh 3s.  I put the villain all-in on the turn and he calls, resulting in a $20.10 pot.  He shows 9c 9h.  The river is Th and he wins.  At the time we went all-in, I was an 86.4% favorite, making my “equity” in the pot ($20.1 x 86.4%) = $17.35.

4.  I have 8s 9d and call a small pre-flop raise from the BB.  The flop comes out 7s 9h 8c.  I check-raise enough to put the post-flop raiser (a short stack again) all-in and he calls, resulting in a $14.50 pot.  He shows 9s 6s.  The river is 5d and he wins.  At the time we went all-in, I was a 67.8% favorite, making my “equity” in the pot ($14.50 x 67.8%) = $9.85.

5.  I have 3s 4s  and call a small pre-flop raise ($0.42 more) from the BB in a 5-player pot.  This is my first hand of today.  The board comes out 6s 9d 7s 9s.  I check-raise all-in and the biggest stack at the table calls from the button, resulting in a $51.15 pot.  He shows 8h 9c.  The river is 9h giving him quads.  At the time we went all-in, I was a 77.3% favorite, making my “equity” in the pot ($51.15 x 77.3%) = $39.50.

Summary of these five hands… I was the favorite every hand at the time all of the chips went into the middle.

Mathematical “equity” in these hands:  $97.

Actual winnings:  Zip.  Zero.  Nada.  Nyet.  Squadoosh.

Admittedly you can’t win them all, and less than 100% means you won’t win them all.  I suppose I could add up all the hands where I was a favorite when the money went all-in and did actually win, but that wouldn’t be much fun, would it?

Year-to-date online results:  (- $1,670)

Month-to-date online results:  + $194

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