KKing David

Ruminations on poker

Daily Debacle – VPIP = 100

While recovering from a recent major downswing, I’m playing at the micro stakes again.  Now at $0.05 / 0.10 NL online.  Yuck!  Some adjustments are necessary at these stakes based on the nature of the player pool and $$ involved.

At this particular table, one player has been in every pot.  Literally every single one.  He’s been at the table for 22 hands and VPIP (Voluntarily Put $$ Into Pot) is 100%.  He’s been bleeding money, but keeps sticking more in there.

I have As Ac.  Time to relieve this fish of some more of his chips.  (Do you like my use of fish and chips in the same sentence?  I thought so, but I digress…).  I am in the cutoff seat and the fish is the small blind.

UTG raises to $0.20 and the next player calls.  I 3-bet to $0.60.  The fish in the small blind calls and so does the original raiser and original caller.

Flop ($2.50):  9h 5s 2h.  This is really dry except for the hearts flush draw.  Possible sets out there (as always) but this board would not have hit many of the villains’ hands very hard.  Let’s play aggressively.

Everybody checks to me, so I bet $2.10, about 85% of the pot.  The fish now check-raises all-in for $5.40.  I have him covered and it will cost me $3.30 more to call.  There is $10 in the pot now, so I’m getting 3-to-1 on the call.

Before I tell the rest of the story, let’s do some analysis.

First of all, his range:  For starters, any 2 cards.  Now, check-raising all-in, we have to give him sets (999, 555 or 222), any 2-pair (95, 92, 52), flush draws (any 2 hearts), top pair hands (any 9x).  What else?

Against this very wide range, I am a 64.5% favorite.  Easy call.

Against sets only, I am only a 10% favorite.  Easy fold (if I can narrow his range this much).

Against 2-pair hands only, I have more outs as the board can pair making me a higher 2-pair hand.  I would be a 27% favorite, just high enough to justify a call.  73%-to-27% = 2.7-to-1 and the pot is giving me 3-to-1 odds.

Against sets and 2-pair hands combined, I am a 22.7% favorite.  Not high enough to call.

Against sets, 2-pair and hands with a 9 and a kicker higher than 9 (A9-T9), I am a 57.5% favorite.  Easy call.

So I call.  (Duh… you knew that already, as the title of this post starts with “Daily Debacle…”)

Villain turns over 5h 2s.  Yep, the lowest possible 2-pair and shittiest possible hand in his range.  My hand doesn’t improve and I lose this pot.

Who is the fish now?

Year-to-date online results:  (- $1,892)

Month-to-date online results:  + $14.   Yee-haw!

 

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2 thoughts on “Daily Debacle – VPIP = 100

  1. Brian Thorstad on said:

    Shows the correct strategy must be to play every pot.

    Like

    • Lol. Hardly! Perhaps a better strategy would be to give the fish some more credit when he check-raises all-in. In prior post, pocket aces was an easy fold. Maybe this should be the same.

      Like

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