KKing David

Ruminations on poker

Daily Debacle – Bubble Considerations

Last night I played in a live tournament with $35 buy-in and 21 players.  This is a private game where I know most of the players fairly well.

The payout goes to the top 4.

We got down to 5, and I had a slightly below average stack, with M of approximately 7.  (M is a calculation of your stack size divided by the sum of blinds and antes.  This is a no ante tournament, so the math is easy.  M represents the number of orbits of the deal around the table that you can last without entering any pots.)

Under the gun, I get KT off-suit.  Not great but not terrible.  The next hand I’ll be in the big blind, then the small blind.  I don’t want to get so short stacked that I lose my fold equity.  In short table situations, I know that the effective M ratio is smaller, as I will be in one of the blinds 40% of the time with 5 players.

This is a classic bubble situation.

Despite being UTG, there are only 4 players after me and a good chance all of them will fold if I shove here.  So I do exactly that, knowing I’m behind any Ace-rag hand, any pair, etc.  Basically this is a bluff, as I should be behind any hand that calls me.

Everyone folds to the big blind, who also has a big stack.  He calls and shows KK.  A flop, turn and river later, I’ll out of the tournament and out of the money.

I could afford to wait.  Having a below average stack during bubble play warrants tightening up more, unless there are only one or two players behind.

Year-to-date online results:  (- $460)

Month-to-date online results:  + $49

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