Daily Debacle – Bubble Considerations
Last night I played in a live tournament with $35 buy-in and 21 players. This is a private game where I know most of the players fairly well.
The payout goes to the top 4.
We got down to 5, and I had a slightly below average stack, with M of approximately 7. (M is a calculation of your stack size divided by the sum of blinds and antes. This is a no ante tournament, so the math is easy. M represents the number of orbits of the deal around the table that you can last without entering any pots.)
Under the gun, I get KT off-suit. Not great but not terrible. The next hand I’ll be in the big blind, then the small blind. I don’t want to get so short stacked that I lose my fold equity. In short table situations, I know that the effective M ratio is smaller, as I will be in one of the blinds 40% of the time with 5 players.
This is a classic bubble situation.
Despite being UTG, there are only 4 players after me and a good chance all of them will fold if I shove here. So I do exactly that, knowing I’m behind any Ace-rag hand, any pair, etc. Basically this is a bluff, as I should be behind any hand that calls me.
Everyone folds to the big blind, who also has a big stack. He calls and shows KK. A flop, turn and river later, I’ll out of the tournament and out of the money.
I could afford to wait. Having a below average stack during bubble play warrants tightening up more, unless there are only one or two players behind.
Year-to-date online results: (- $460)
Month-to-date online results: + $49