KKing David

Ruminations on poker

Daily Debacle – Terrible Bluff

Playing $0.50 / 1.00 NL online.

This session isn’t going very well, with my $100 starting stack now down to $45.  A large chunk of that took place on a hand where I had KQ and the board ran J-5-9-K-Q.  Of course, the villain had a straight, and I called his turn and river bets.

Now I have A7 off suit in the hijack position.  The cutoff just joined the table and posted $1 blind, in addition to the SB and BB.  Everyone else folds to me, so I make a pot-sized raise to $4.50.  My hand really isn’t that strong, but there is $1 of extra dead money in the pot so perhaps I can take this down without a fight.  My primary objective here is to steal the blinds.  If there is any secondary objective, it is to secure position for all post flop action.

The button calls $4.50 and all others fold.  Shoot!  Neither objective has been accomplished, but perhaps I can make a nifty play and still win.  I look at the button’s pre-flop stats – VPIP=21, PFR=14 over 29 hands played.  Pretty solid, nothing fishy or super-tight.

Flop ($11.50):  2s 2h 3s…  all low cards.  This looks like a good spot for a continuation bet, representing a high pair.  I bet $10 into $11.50 and the button calls.

Shoot!

Turn ($31.50):  Qs… completing a flush draw.  I only have $30.35 remaining, less than the size of the pot.  If I shove, will he fold?

Let’s consider his calling range for the pre-flop action.  First I’ll assign him a very tight 3-betting range of AA-QQ, AK-AQs, AKo.  So his calling range, given that he has position after the flop, might be:

Pocket pairs JJ-22.  Higher pairs would have likely re-raised, although I’ve seen players with similar stats just call with QQ in position.

Suited AJ-A2, KQ-K7, QJ-Q8, JT-J9, T9-T8, 98, 87, 76, 65, 54

Unsuited AQ-A5, KQ-K9, QJ-QT, JT, T9

This is actually about 26% of all hands, higher than his VPIP suggests but again he has position.

After the flop, I’ll assume he would fold a lot of this and keep:

Pocket pairs JJ-22

Suited any two spades, 65, 54, A5

Unsuited A5, maybe AQ, not much else

Now that I look at this, his flop calling range is pretty strong, dominated by over pairs and flush draws.  Any huge hands (33, 22, A2s) he can afford to slow play as I’ve now mentioned several time, HE HAS POSITION.  At the time however, I thought I could steal the pot with another strong barrel.

So I shove all-in on the turn, betting my last $30 into a pot of $31.50.

He insta-calls, and turns over Jc Jh, near top of his range.  The Q and flush draw didn’t phase him a bit.

The river bricks and I head to the cyber cashier.  A terrible play on every street.

Year-to-date online results:  (- $776)

Month-to-date online results:  + $430

 

 

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