KKing David

Ruminations on poker

Daily Debacle – Low Flush

This hand occurred in a $0.50 / $1.00 no limit game online.

I have the button, and dealt 3d 2d.  Yes, I know these are really low cards, but there is one limper in front of me so I limp in to see a cheap flop, in position.  A guy I play with in some local live games says he always plays deuce-trey suited because you can win a really big pot with a well disguised hand when it hits.  I think about him as I click the ‘call’ button.  The small blind folds and the big blind checks, so I got what I wanted.  The original limper has been at the table for 18 hands, with stats of VPIP = 50, PFR = 22.

The flop is Kh 7d 5d.  A flush draw.  Woo-hoooo.  Both players check, so I bet $2 into a pot of $3.50.  BB folds and the limper calls.

What I should do now is estimate a range for this player.  Given his stats and pre-flop lime, it will be a pretty wide range but won’t include many premium hands that would have open-raised.  Let’s go with this:

Pairs:  99, 88, 77, 66, 55, 44

Suited:  Almost any 2 diamonds, including any Ad, any Kd, Qd Jd-8d, Jd Td-8d, Td 9d-8d, 9d 8d, 9d 6d, 8d 6d, 6d 4d

Unsuited:  KQ-K5 (including suited but not diamonds), 7T-75, and maybe some random 5’s like A5, 65, 54.

The turn card is 3s, giving me a low pair to go with my flush draw.  While a pair of 3’s is pretty weak, this  creates 5 more outs for me with the remaining 2’s and 3’s.

The original limper checks and I get $6 into a pot of $13.50.  In hindsight, this bet is too weak, about 44% of the pot.  If I’m trying to say “Dude, I’ve got this one” a larger bet is needed, somewhere around $10 or $11.  Now the villain check-raises to $15.

Huh?

Did the 3 help him?  Or was he setting up for this all along?  If the 3 helped, he could have 33 for a set (only one combination of 3’s is now possible) or 64 to make a straight (any 64 suited might have limped in) or K3 (I suppose a very loose player could limp with K3 suited, but much more of a long-shot.

Otherwise he might have flopped a set of 777 or 555 and been waiting to ambush me.  KKK less likely as he would have raised pre-flop.  Or flopped two pair with K7 or K5.

I have a hard time seeing this check-raise with a single pair of K’s or anything weaker.  His pre-flop limp rules out AK and probably KQ (both should have raised pre), and the check-raise represents too much strength.

Should I call or should I fold?  The pot is now $28.50 and it will cost $9 to call.  I’m getting 3.2 – to – 1 odds to call.  The odds of making my flush, assuming all 9 outs are live, are 3.9 – to – 1 against.  Not good enough. If he has a set, then two of my outs are likely counterfeited, leaving me with odds of 5.3 – to – 1 against.  On the other hand, if he has something weaker that I can bet by hitting another 3 or a 2 on the river card, I may have as many as 14 outs (9 diamonds, 3 deuces, 2 treys).  Then my odds are 2.1 – to – 1 and I should call.

One last consideration.  I have position and get to act last.  This helps me to have a better chance of getting more of his chips into the pot.  I can assume I have some implied odds here so I decide to call.

The river is Ad.  Ba-da-bing!  My flush comes home to pappa.

He leads with a bet of $20 into a pot that is now $37.50.

Do I need to consider the possibility that he has a stronger flush?  Methinks not.  If he’s also chasing a flush, his check-raise on the turn makes no sense.  That was clearly a value bet, the board isn’t paired, and it’s time for me to take him to Value-Town.

How much to raise?  I consider a minimum raise, to $40.  No, too conservative and too transparent.  That just screams “I HAVE A FLUSH.”  Shove all-in?  No, too aggressive.  I want to win a bigger pot and justify the implied odds on which my turn call was based, not blow him off the pot now that my draw has arrived.  I decide to raise to $50, leaving me with $34 behind.

In hindsight, this was not a good size for my raise.  I’m pot-committed.  The pot is $107.50 and will grow to $137.50 if he calls.  If he re-raises all-in, the pot will be $171.50 and cost me $34 to call, giving me odds of slightly more than 5 – to – 1 to call.  There’s no way I’m going to fold me flush with those odds.  Instead I should simply call here – if I think he might also have a flush – or go ahead and shove, hoping he will interpret that as a bluff.

He rather quickly re-raises all-in, and I think the pot odds make my call mandatory.

He shows Kd Jd for the nut flush.  Jeez.  It turns out he had flopped top pair, decent kicker and 2nd to nut flush draw, and the river card being the Ad made his hand the absolute nuts.  He wins a $207.50 pot.

Year-to-date online results:  (- $814)

Month-to-date online results:  +$391

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