Even a relatively short stretch can reveal the truth about the long run.
Or a classic Eagles song:
I used to hurry a lot I used to worry a lot
I used to stay out till the break of day
Oh, that didn’t get it
It was high time I quit it
I just couldn’t carry on that way
In the long run
Ooh, I want to tell you, it’s a long run
Which brings me to last Tuesday. I had raised pre-flop with AJ, got a couple of callers and the flop was AJ4 with a flush draw. Pretty good flop for me. One player called my C-bet. For purposes of this blog, I’ll call him “Phil.” When an off-suit 6 came on the turn, I put out a much larger bet, around 85% of the pot. After a few seconds, he raises all-in and I quickly call.
The river is an off-suit K, and Phil calmly says “two pair” as he turns over AK.
The thing is, Phil is a friend of mine. Starting this Friday, he’s booked a large house for a week near the upcoming WSOP Circuit stop in Cherokee, NC and invited me to stay there for a few days (but not for free, of course). But that pot was supposed to be mine, notwithstanding his 3-outer. With the same sets of facts at the point when all the chips went in, I’ll win 93.2% of the time. Isn’t that close enough to 100%? [short answer = no]
“Hey Phil, that was my rent money!”
Then on Saturday I played at MGM National Harbor in Maryland. With 88, I raised and got three callers. The flop was KJ8 rainbow. Pretty good flop for me. Two players called my C-bet, both with position on me. The turn was a 7, same suit as the 8.
Both callers had acted fairly quickly and confidently, so I decided to check the turn with the intent of raising any bet. The next player obliged but the 3rd guy folded. It would take an approximately 75% of pot check-raise to put him all-in, so that’s what I did. The remaining player, a quiet gentleman who looked to be about 75-ish, went into the tank. For purposes of this blog, I’ll call him “Nathaniel.” He looked a bit confused and I thought he was going to fold. Maybe my C-bet the flop, then check-raise shove line was too strong. Eventually he called, still looking very unsure of himself.
Did you do it for love?
Did you do it for money?
Did you do it for spite?
Did you think you had to, honey?
Knowing I’m getting paid off, I tabled my hand right away. The river was another J. As the dealer announced “full house,” Nathaniel reached for his cards, and I became hyper-aware that KJ was definitely a part of his calling range. Instead, he tabled T9, which was even stronger… until it wasn’t!
Holy shit! My heart skipped a beat. Why was he in the tank so long before calling an all-in bet, with no other live players in the hand, with the absolute nuts?
Maybe it really does all even out.
Who is gonna make it?
We’ll find out in the long run (in the long run)
Gonna find out. Ooh. Find find find out
In the long run… In the long run
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