This hand came in a session of 6-max, $0.25 – 0.50 NL. I am in the small blind with a stack of $40, having been pretty card-dead for awhile. I am dealt Ad Jc.
UTG has $269 on the table and has been running wild! Over the last 28 hands, he has voluntarily put $$ in the pot (VPIP) 82% of the time and pre-flop raised (PFR) 50%.
UTG raises to $1.50, which is not a show of any particular strength given his stats. The cutoff calls $1.50 (his VPIP and PFR are 67 / 33 but he’s only been at the table for 6 hands.
This looks like a good spot for a healthy re-raise. My Ace-Jack offsuit is likely the best hand right now and it would be better to take down the pot right now than have to play the rest of the hand out-of-position against two very loose players. If one or both of them call and I connect with the flop, even better!
I’m trying to decide how much to raise – a pot-sized raise would be a total bet of $6.50. I might even go with $7.50 to apply extra pressure to end this now.
Snapping me out of my amazingly clear thoughts is the player on the button, who re-raises to $4. If he is a typical player at this level, this smallish raise signals strength. He wants at least one caller, and UTG is sure to oblige.
Now my hand looks easily dominated! A pot-sized raise would now be $11.50, leaving me with about $28 behind and making it very tough to avoid being pot-committed. What will I do from out-of-position if the button calls and I whiff the flop? I fold, pat myself on the back of the shoulder and reassure myself that discretion is the better part of valor. Or something Sun Tzu said about not fighting battles that cannot be won.
Sure enough, UTG and Cutoff both call the $4.
The flop is A-A-J. AAAARRRRRRGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHH!
Everyone checks to the button, who shoves all-in for his last $15. UTG cheerfully calls, and the cutoff folds.
UTG has A-9. Button has K-K.
Had I stayed in, I might have gotten the rest of my chips in and a call from the UTG player.
Month-to-date online results: + $294
Year-to-date online results: (- $504)