PLO Equities, Part 3

PLO equities poker blog

In two recent posts, first here and then here, I summarized the equity at the time of all-in bets (before the river card) in low stakes, online PLO games.  Continuing today with a few more.

Generally I’m enjoying the PLO, feel like I’m learning some of the nuances, recognize that players at the low stakes are likely much worse than the skills I’ll encounter when moving up, and for now I don’t think playing online PLO has had any negative affects on my playing live no limit holdem.  It helps to have a self-reminder before each session about which game I’m playing and the top of mind things to focus on as I settle into the session.

  • Won this one, against a villain who was raising almost every hand pre-flop and down to a short stack at this point.  He just wanted to gamble… thank you, sir!  Note, however, that even as dominant as my AA appears to be, the equity is inside the 60/40 boundaries.

Me:   A♠ 2 A♣ 2♣ = 59.6%

Villain:  9 6 T♠ Q = 40.4%

  • Won this one, when I got frisky against a short stack with top pair on the flop and rivered 2-pair.  Not proud, but I’ll take it as an offset against several earlier hands where I was 70%+ and lost.

Me:   6 K♣ 9♣ 8 = 27.4%

Villain:  Q♣ A♠ 9♠ A = 72.6%

Board: 4♠ K♠ Q

  • Lost this one, after talking myself into a terrible call when I knew better.  This repeats a lesson that apparently many new PLO players have to learn, not to overvalue weak flush draws.  It looks like I *might* have a lot of outs.  My hand improves with any diamond, J or 9 for 13 potential outs.  But the villain has a better flush draw and has my jack dominated, leaving my only outs as the 2 remaining 9’s and some backdoor straight draws.  Terrible.

Me:   J♣ 9♠ 6 9 = 11.0%

Villain:  J 8♣ K 5 = 89.0%

Board: K♣ J 8

  • Lost this one, which really hurt for 350+ BBs.  Villain had been very loose, aggressive and bluffy, and I got it in very good with top & bottom pair, an over pair of KKs, and the 2nd nut flush draw.  I’m ahead, with outs to improve further.  The villain, on the other hand, probably thought he had more outs than he actually did with a weaker flush draw (to go with middle pair and an open-ended straight draw).  Good play for me; bad result.

Me:   5♠ K K♠ T = 67.9%

Villain:  7 6 Q♠ 8♠ = 32.1%

Board: 5♣ T♠ 6♠

  • Lost this one, where I never should have gotten involved.  The Player 3 re-shoved, I knew this wouldn’t end well, after I tried to isolate Player 2, who was the same villain as the previous hand and this occurred just a few hands later.  So I was on tilt.  Yep.  Good news, sort of:  didn’t re-load and went to bed instead.

Me:   8♠ Q 8♣ 5 = 11.3%

Player 2:  8 T♠ Q♣ 5♠ = 33.5%

Player 3:  A 4♣ 6 J♠ = 52.2%

Board: 5 Q♠ 7

  • Won this one, after 3-betting from the SB against a button raise (after watching a PLO training video before the session that pointed out some good spots/hands for this tactic.  Button’s range is somewhat wide, I have an ace blocker, blah, blah, blah).  Top pair/top kicker is a decent no limit holdem flop but not one you normally play to take to the mat in PLO.  Worked out this time…

Me:   A♠ J 7 9♣ = 60.6%

Villain:  K 8♠ J♣ Q♣ = 39.4%

Board:  3 J♠ 4♣

  • Won this one against the same villain as the previous hand, on the very next hand.  I have some leaks in this game, but he’s not going to be around long if he keeps calling 3-bets and playing flops of top paid / 2nd kicker this way!

Me:   8 J A♣ A = 80.9%

Villain:  8♣ 3 Q K = 19.1%

Board: Q 9♠ T

Summary stats including hands from Parts 1 and 2:

Total hands reviewed (heads-up only):  25

Favorite when the all-in occured:  16/25 (64%) = EXCELLENT.  In keeping with my theme that PLO is MLB, getting it in as the favorite 64% of the time is like a Major League Baseball team winning 104 games in a 162 game regular season.  That easily wins a division and secures home field advantage in the playoffs.

Won the pot:  14/25 (56%) = UNDER-PERFORMING.  Can I still look forward to regressing to the mean?

Simple average of equity in heads-up pots:  52.8% = OKAY, NOT GREAT.  A few times I’ve gotten my chips in totally crushed (see equity of 11%, twice (!), above.  That has to stop if I’m to become a consistent PLO winner.


Now if only I could tempt a few more of my readers to go all-in on liking / posting / sharing /retweeting my poker blog on Facebook, Twitter or Instagram, or post a comment, and clicking the Follow button at the bottom of this page to be notified of all new posts.

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