Daily Debacle – Tilted Overbet

This came near the end (out of necessity) of a long session playing $0.10 – 0.25 NL online.

The villain in this hand is a super fish sitting to my immediate right (6-max tables).  His basic stats are VPIP = 49, PFR = 8 over 71 hands played.  Several times he has grossly overbet the pot after the flop, as much as 4x when the pot is very small.  I’ve been looking for a spot to take a big bite out of him.  Overall my session isn’t going so well.  On this and other tables I keep running into flopped sets and river suckouts, and my better hands aren’t getting paid off enough to compensate.  I probably should have quit before now, but that’s a whole another post for later…

Fishy villain is the small blind with $35 behind and I am the big blind with $37, there are only five players at the table, and everyone else folds.

I have Td 9d, for a sexy looking medium suited connector.  SB completes the blind and I check my option.  Let’s see a cheap flop and see what happens.

Flop ($0.50):  Qd 6h Jd.  SSSSWEEEEEET!!!  I have a straight flush draw.

Villain bets $2.00, into a pot of $0.50 (actually, after removing the rake, the pot is only $0.48).  I’m tired of this shit from him.  Let’s suppose he has something, like a pair or two pair.  I have 15 outs – 9 to make a flush, plus the 3 non-diamond kings and eights to make a straight, with 2 cards remaining.

If he has one pair, I am a favorite by about 57 – 43% to win the hand.

If he has two pair, he has outs to make a full house and his is the favorite by about 51 – 49%.

If he has a set (only plausible if he has 66 – surely he would have raised pre-flop with JJ or QQ), he would be the favorite by 58 – 42%.  I consider this very unlikely as probably would slow play.

So I shove all-in.  That’ll show him!

He calls without too much hesitation and shows J-6 off suit.  At the time, I thought it was just a pair of jacks with a weak kicker, but now I’m looking at the replay and he actually had bottom 2 pair.

The turn and river are Tc (giving me two more outs to make 3 of a kind) and Ah.  There goes a $70 pot.

On the one hand, I had a lot of equity in this pot and coulda / shoulda / woulda won a nice sum if one of my outs had hit.

On the other hand, it was basically a coin toss and in hindsight not realistic to think that I had any fold equity – my bet screams of bluff or semi-bluff and this fish wouldn’t know how to fold 2-pair on the flop even if I had top set and turned my cards over face up.  Putting your entire stack at risk on a 50/50 proposition is GAMBLING, and my goal is to make profitable short-term investments, not to “gamble.”

My huge overbet shove after his much smaller overbet was a tilted play.  I was on tilt.  Not the full raging, screaming, throwing things kind (until after this hand), but the “C game” not thinking clearly or acting rationally kind.


One Reply to “Daily Debacle – Tilted Overbet”

  1. 15 outs with 2 being “with style” and he has a huge range begging to be pounded… Most of us would probably be there.

    Sent from Brian’s iPhone


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