This came near the end (out of necessity) of a long session playing $0.10 – 0.25 NL online.
The villain in this hand is a super fish sitting to my immediate right (6-max tables). His basic stats are VPIP = 49, PFR = 8 over 71 hands played. Several times he has grossly overbet the pot after the flop, as much as 4x when the pot is very small. I’ve been looking for a spot to take a big bite out of him. Overall my session isn’t going so well. On this and other tables I keep running into flopped sets and river suckouts, and my better hands aren’t getting paid off enough to compensate. I probably should have quit before now, but that’s a whole another post for later…
Fishy villain is the small blind with $35 behind and I am the big blind with $37, there are only five players at the table, and everyone else folds.
I have Td 9d, for a sexy looking medium suited connector. SB completes the blind and I check my option. Let’s see a cheap flop and see what happens.
Flop ($0.50): Qd 6h Jd. SSSSWEEEEEET!!! I have a straight flush draw.
Villain bets $2.00, into a pot of $0.50 (actually, after removing the rake, the pot is only $0.48). I’m tired of this shit from him. Let’s suppose he has something, like a pair or two pair. I have 15 outs – 9 to make a flush, plus the 3 non-diamond kings and eights to make a straight, with 2 cards remaining.
If he has one pair, I am a favorite by about 57 – 43% to win the hand.
If he has two pair, he has outs to make a full house and his is the favorite by about 51 – 49%.
If he has a set (only plausible if he has 66 – surely he would have raised pre-flop with JJ or QQ), he would be the favorite by 58 – 42%. I consider this very unlikely as probably would slow play.
So I shove all-in. That’ll show him!
He calls without too much hesitation and shows J-6 off suit. At the time, I thought it was just a pair of jacks with a weak kicker, but now I’m looking at the replay and he actually had bottom 2 pair.
The turn and river are Tc (giving me two more outs to make 3 of a kind) and Ah. There goes a $70 pot.
On the one hand, I had a lot of equity in this pot and coulda / shoulda / woulda won a nice sum if one of my outs had hit.
On the other hand, it was basically a coin toss and in hindsight not realistic to think that I had any fold equity – my bet screams of bluff or semi-bluff and this fish wouldn’t know how to fold 2-pair on the flop even if I had top set and turned my cards over face up. Putting your entire stack at risk on a 50/50 proposition is GAMBLING, and my goal is to make profitable short-term investments, not to “gamble.”
My huge overbet shove after his much smaller overbet was a tilted play. I was on tilt. Not the full raging, screaming, throwing things kind (until after this hand), but the “C game” not thinking clearly or acting rationally kind.
15 outs with 2 being “with style” and he has a huge range begging to be pounded… Most of us would probably be there.
Sent from Brian’s iPhone