KKing David

Ruminations on poker

Daily Debacle – Tilted Overbet

This came near the end (out of necessity) of a long session playing $0.10 – 0.25 NL online.

The villain in this hand is a super fish sitting to my immediate right (6-max tables).  His basic stats are VPIP = 49, PFR = 8 over 71 hands played.  Several times he has grossly overbet the pot after the flop, as much as 4x when the pot is very small.  I’ve been looking for a spot to take a big bite out of him.  Overall my session isn’t going so well.  On this and other tables I keep running into flopped sets and river suckouts, and my better hands aren’t getting paid off enough to compensate.  I probably should have quit before now, but that’s a whole another post for later…

Fishy villain is the small blind with $35 behind and I am the big blind with $37, there are only five players at the table, and everyone else folds.

I have Td 9d, for a sexy looking medium suited connector.  SB completes the blind and I check my option.  Let’s see a cheap flop and see what happens.

Flop ($0.50):  Qd 6h Jd.  SSSSWEEEEEET!!!  I have a straight flush draw.

Villain bets $2.00, into a pot of $0.50 (actually, after removing the rake, the pot is only $0.48).  I’m tired of this shit from him.  Let’s suppose he has something, like a pair or two pair.  I have 15 outs – 9 to make a flush, plus the 3 non-diamond kings and eights to make a straight, with 2 cards remaining.

If he has one pair, I am a favorite by about 57 – 43% to win the hand.

If he has two pair, he has outs to make a full house and his is the favorite by about 51 – 49%.

If he has a set (only plausible if he has 66 – surely he would have raised pre-flop with JJ or QQ), he would be the favorite by 58 – 42%.  I consider this very unlikely as probably would slow play.

So I shove all-in.  That’ll show him!

He calls without too much hesitation and shows J-6 off suit.  At the time, I thought it was just a pair of jacks with a weak kicker, but now I’m looking at the replay and he actually had bottom 2 pair.

The turn and river are Tc (giving me two more outs to make 3 of a kind) and Ah.  There goes a $70 pot.

On the one hand, I had a lot of equity in this pot and coulda / shoulda / woulda won a nice sum if one of my outs had hit.

On the other hand, it was basically a coin toss and in hindsight not realistic to think that I had any fold equity – my bet screams of bluff or semi-bluff and this fish wouldn’t know how to fold 2-pair on the flop even if I had top set and turned my cards over face up.  Putting your entire stack at risk on a 50/50 proposition is GAMBLING, and my goal is to make profitable short-term investments, not to “gamble.”

My huge overbet shove after his much smaller overbet was a tilted play.  I was on tilt.  Not the full raging, screaming, throwing things kind (until after this hand), but the “C game” not thinking clearly or acting rationally kind.

 

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One thought on “Daily Debacle – Tilted Overbet

  1. Brian Thorstad on said:

    15 outs with 2 being “with style” and he has a huge range begging to be pounded… Most of us would probably be there.

    Sent from Brian’s iPhone

    Like

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